syria, where to?

Between cautious optimism and catastrophic pessimism, the positions and reactions of a number of politicians, diplomats, strategic experts, and political science professors interested in Syrian affairs varied regarding the future of Syria after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime, under the current new leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa, head of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham. This was during a symposium organized by the Boutros Boutros-Ghali Foundation for Peace and Knowledge, titled "Syria: Where to?", held the night before last at the Diplomatic Club. The symposium was attended by a number of former foreign ministers, ambassadors, political science professors, and public figures, most notably Amr Moussa, Mohamed al-Orabi, and Dr. Ali al-Din Hilal. Ambassador Leila Bahaa El-Din, Executive Director of the Kemet Boutros Ghali Foundation for Peace and Knowledge, opened the symposium and delivered the opening remarks on behalf of Mamdouh Abbas, President of the Foundation. She emphasized Syria's importance to the Egyptian conscience, as well as its importance as a pivotal Arab country historically, culturally, and strategically. She noted the Foundation's commitment to monitoring the rapid developments and complex interactions within a complex fabric at all levels—religious, sectarian, and denominational—in an effort to understand where Syria is headed.

Abbas said, "The majority of Syrians were overcome by understandable, spontaneous feelings of joy after the fall of the Assad regime. However, this joy was accompanied by fear of new arrivals and the growing influence of competing regional and international interests. Along with hope, questions multiplied: Is it possible to separate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and Ahmad al-Sharaa from their history and legacy linked to Jabhat al-Nusra and al-Qaeda? Is their separation from al-Qaeda solely political or also ideological?" Is it possible that the hoped-for cultural, civil, and political activity of Syrians will impose a greater degree of moderation, especially after the expected return of Syrians from the diaspora? Moreover, the Liberation Committee itself includes multiple factions with diverse backgrounds. After the fall of the Assad regime, what remains of the shared vision among these factions?

Here, he added, the necessity of preventing Syria from becoming a source of threat to stability in the region or a center for terrorist groups emerges. He asked, "With the changing regional balance, Iran's withdrawal, and Turkey's tightening of control over the areas it occupies in Syria and its expansion there, how can Turkey's rejection of the Syrian Democratic Forces be reconciled with negotiations with them to integrate them into Syrian institutions?" How will Israel be dealt with, given its lurking in Syria and the destruction of its army's weapons and its occupation of more Syrian territory?

Abbas continued, "Developing and activating state institutions and improving the economic conditions of the Syrian people as a matter of urgency are essential. Here, the conditions for lifting the economic sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe become clear, and the question arises about the expected growth of US influence during President Trump's presidency over Europe, Turkey, and perhaps the Arab Gulf states.

Dareen Khalifa, Senior Advisor at the International Crisis Group and Syria expert, spoke about four key points for understanding what is happening in Syria now, which can be used to determine the future: Who are the current decision-makers in Syria? Who is Ahmed al-Sharaa? What are the most important problems and challenges facing the new administration? What are the international positions and the vision of Trump and his new administration for the Syrian situation?