seminar: the implications of global economic and trade developments on egypt

The Kemet Boutros Ghali Foundation for Peace and Knowledge held a seminar titled "The Implications of Global Economic and Trade Developments on Egypt" on Tuesday, May 27, 2025, at the Diplomatic Club in Tahrir, Cairo.

During the seminar, Dr. Mahmoud Mohieldin — the UN Special Envoy for Sustainable Development and head of the UN Secretary-General’s expert group for global debt crisis solutions — stated that Egypt’s relationship with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will conclude in November 2026. He stressed the need for Egypt to prepare for the post-IMF program phase by focusing on boosting investment and increasing competitiveness.

His remarks came during the seminar organized by the Kemet Boutros Ghali Foundation, with participation from Mamdouh Abbas, Chairman of the Foundation’s Board of Trustees, and Ambassador Laila Bahaa El-Din, Executive Director of the Foundation. The event was attended by several former ministers, including Amr Moussa, Ambassador Nabil Fahmy, Dr. Aladdin Hilal, Dr. Naglaa El Ahwany, Dr. Ashraf El Araby, Mounir Fakhry Abdel Nour, and Mostafa El Feki, as well as ambassadors, public figures, media professionals, and members of the Foundation’s Board of Trustees.

Dr. Mohieldin added that IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva highlighted three priorities for countries: economic diversification — a strategy increasingly adopted by Gulf states; digital transformation and artificial intelligence — noting that Egypt possesses a qualified human capital base in AI; and leveling the playing field to ensure fair competition for all under equal rules.

He emphasized the need for accurate and up-to-date data to support sound economic decision-making, which necessitates the enactment of a Freedom of Information Law to regulate data access.

He stressed that development and stability in Egypt are impossible without prioritizing human capital, which is one of the country’s key strengths due to its disciplined and unique demographic composition.

Dr. Mohieldin pointed out that people are the creators of artificial intelligence, and they must be at the core of Egypt’s economic strategy after the IMF program concludes. This should include macroeconomic stability through development that focuses on investing in people and making the economy resilient to shocks.

He also noted that the U.S. president came into office amid major crises, including the debt ceiling issue and the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, alongside other challenges such as trade disputes, tariff conflicts, and the dollar crisis.

Dr. Mohieldin remarked that the world is currently experiencing rapid and significant changes affecting everyone. He mentioned ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and various countries, adding that current American actions reflect a broader trend.

He further stated that this century is inevitably Asian — particularly Chinese — noting the rise of Asia and the relative decline of Europe, which faces numerous challenges. He explained that the global financial crisis continues to impact the EU economically and politically. In the aftermath of these crises, ASEAN countries and a few Latin American and African nations have shown improved performance.

Dr. Mohieldin highlighted studies indicating that global influence is shifting toward ASEAN, China, and India. He cited a study showing the middle class in China is expanding, in contrast to the EU, where it is shrinking. The EU also faces existential threats, such as insufficient investment in human capital, research, and development, and growing gaps with both the U.S. (a longstanding issue) and China (a more recent one).

In response to questions, Dr. Mohieldin noted that protectionist measures and tariffs are not new — the U.S. had 900 trade restrictions in 2019, which rose to 3,400 before Trump took office. He remarked that global cooperation has deteriorated significantly and stressed the importance of new regional blocs such as ASEAN.

Regarding the U.S. dollar, which still accounts for 60% of global reserves, he noted that the BRICS currency has yet to emerge. Despite negative developments, the dollar remains the preferred global currency — but this may not last forever. He emphasized that Egypt must aim for a stable local currency and diversify its foreign reserves. He added, “More important than switching between hard currencies is not making your currency ‘soft’ — fight inflation, grow the economy, export more, and invest.”

Answering a question about the middle class, Dr. Mohieldin explained that low growth and high inflation contribute to rising poverty. He stated that the middle class in any society does not seek financial aid or welfare programs but instead needs better access to healthcare, education, and mobility.

Regarding Egypt’s current economic situation, he acknowledged improvements in macroeconomic indicators, but stressed that the quality of life for citizens must be closely assessed. By April or May next year, Egypt should have a more comprehensive program, and the general budget should include all revenues.

He noted that foreign investment comes in various forms — such as oil extraction and acquisitions of existing companies — but the most beneficial type is investment in new projects, like the electric cable (Dufair) project or Samsung’s project in Egypt.

Finally, Dr. Mohieldin stated that creating a level playing field requires a vital role for regulatory bodies and consumer protection agencies. He proposed consolidating these bodies into a single authority under the president’s supervision to ensure fair competition under unified rules.