great disruptives and mega-threats

The year is approaching its end, ushering in the customary season for sharing prognoses for the coming year. More often than not, such predictions fail to materialise, regardless of how assiduously analysts apply their analytical paradigms and mathematical models, or claim to do so.

The general uncertainty that prevails today makes the chances of predictions coming true little better than a stab in the dark, and if they do come true, it is more accurate to attribute that to pure coincidence. If you doubt this, just turn back to the forecasts that international agencies have been making over the past three years since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic about global economic growth, inflation rates, the exchange rates of the major currencies, and the prices of oil, food, precious metals and other commodities.

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