a seminar entitled \"interactions in the southern region of egypt 2026\"

At a time when the Horn of Africa and the Nile Basin are undergoing major geopolitical transformations, the Boutros Boutros-Ghali Foundation for Peace and Knowledge (KEMET) organized a comprehensive symposium entitled "Interactions in the Southern Region of Egypt 2026" at the Diplomatic Club in Tahrir Square.

The symposium brought together leading figures in foreign policy and academia on a strategic platform to analyze the complex crises that threaten Egyptian interests in its African heartland.

The event opened with a speech by the Chairman of the Foundation's Board of Trustees, Mamdouh Abbas, delivered on his behalf by Ambassador Laila Bahaa El-Din, the Executive Director. She emphasized that the stability of the southern region is a top priority for Egyptian national security, and that the Foundation's role in 2026 extends beyond academic theorizing to providing strategic alternatives that ensure the preservation of Egypt's historical gains.

In his opening remarks, Amr Moussa, former Secretary-General of the Arab League, presented what he termed a "roadmap," warning of the "strategic fluidity" in the region. He emphasized that Egypt's security begins with the stability of its neighbors, calling for a renewed Egyptian initiative to confront the rapidly changing landscape. He noted that the south is no longer merely a geographical extension but an arena for regional and international power struggles.

Moussa addressed the gravity of the situation, stating that it is "very dangerous," not merely theoretical, especially with Israel's presence in the southern Red Sea region, near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. He recalled Egypt's role in closing the strait during the October War of 1973, describing the situation from Sudan to Ethiopia, passing through Eritrea and Somalia, and including the Somaliland crisis, as "extremely volatile." At the discussion table, the issue of Somaliland emerged as one of the most serious challenges threatening the unity of the African continent. Participants warned that any infringement upon Somali unity would open the door to regional interventions detrimental to Egyptian interests. This came amidst observations of escalating Israeli interference, which has shifted from technological and agricultural cooperation to security and intelligence operations aimed at circumventing Egypt's role.

For his part, Ambassador Osama Abdel-Khalek, Egypt's Permanent Representative to the United Nations until late 2025, presented a vision linking the security of southern Egypt to the situation in Yemen. He emphasized that the stability of the Yemeni state and the integrity of its coastlines represent the first line of defense for Egyptian national security and a safeguard for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal. He warned that any instability would give hostile powers an opportunity to tamper with the region's resources, describing the events as a "wake-up call" for both Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Dr. Ahmed Youssef Ahmed, Professor of Political Science, explained that Al-Zubaidi, leader of the Southern Transitional Council in Yemen, stated in 2025 that restoring the state in "South Arabia" would be an opportunity to sign the "Abraham Accords," revealing his separatist intentions. He also analyzed the "power structure" in the region, pointing to Egypt's need for unconventional tools.

Meanwhile, Dr. Rawya Tawfiq focused on "development diplomacy" and functional integration projects, explaining that confronting external interference necessitates building solid economic interests with the Nile Basin and Horn of Africa countries, and transforming water disputes into areas of cooperation in energy and agriculture.

The seminar concluded with an open discussion in which participants agreed that Egypt's strength lies in its ability to take the initiative and utilize its "smart power." The recommendations concluded with the assertion that maintaining security in 2026 requires viewing the Nile Basin, the Horn of Africa, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as a single, indivisible security zone, to ensure that the keys to the region remain in the hands of its people, free from external agendas.

The symposium identified what it called the "threat triangle" represented by the "Somaliland" crisis, which whets the appetite of external powers to position themselves on the coasts overlooking Egyptian trade routes, the direct threat to the security of Yemen and Bab al-Mandab to the Suez Canal with the increasing Israeli attempts to establish a presence in the neighboring islands, and the "encirclement" strategy practiced by the Israeli entity through the economy and security in the southern neighboring countries with the aim of competing with the historical Egyptian role and forming continuous geopolitical pressure on Cairo.